Short answer: Yes, if you are buying the right kind of home. Three out of four Phoenix-area homes are closing below the seller’s original asking price right now, so buyers have room to negotiate. But clean, correctly priced homes under $400,000 are still getting multiple offers. Knowing which of those two situations you are walking into is the whole game.
What I saw this month
On September 1, I closed a buyer in Gilbert. Nothing about that deal looked like the headlines. The sellers had a number they needed to hit, my buyers had a timeline they needed to hit, and the deal came together because we matched the offer to what the sellers actually cared about, not because we squeezed them on price.
That is September in the East Valley. The leverage is real, but it is not automatic. It depends on the house.
The numbers, city by city
Metro-wide, the latest ARMLS report (July 2026 data) shows 75% of single-family homes sold below original list, 14% at list, and 12% above list. About 40% of those above-list sales were under $400,000. Sales volume is up 3% from last year, so buyers are active, they are just refusing to overpay.[1]
Here is what that looks like in the three cities I work most:
| City | Median sale price | Days on market | Sale-to-list |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert | $588,705 (up 0.6% YoY) | 48 | 98.0% |
| Chandler | $519,656 (down 4.2% YoY) | 49 | 98.2% |
| Mesa | $449,702 (down 3.1% YoY) | 54 | 98.1% |
Redfin, three-month rolling figures ending August 2026 for Chandler and Mesa, July 2026 for Gilbert.[2][3][4]
Read those three rows and one thing jumps out: the typical East Valley home is taking about seven weeks to go pending and closing around 2% under asking. That is a normal market, not a fire sale. If you were hoping for 10% off, you will be waiting a long time. If you want $10,000 to $15,000 off a $500,000 house plus help with closing costs, that is a very realistic conversation on the right property.
Rates right now
Freddie Mac has the 30-year fixed at 6.76% and the 15-year at 6.09% as of September 10, 2026.[5] Those are national averages. Your quote will be different depending on credit, loan type, and down payment.
My advice on rates has not changed: stop waiting for a number and start building around a payment. Have your lender show you the monthly payment at your target price, at 3% under, and with a seller credit applied to a rate buydown. The buydown scenario surprises people. On many East Valley deals right now, a seller credit toward points does more for your monthly payment than an equal amount off the price.
How to tell if the seller will negotiate
You do not have to guess. The listing tells you.
The home has been active longer than the 48 to 54 day city median. There has been at least one price drop. It is vacant, or it is obviously already moved out. It came back on the market after a previous contract fell through. Those are the homes where a below-asking offer with a seller credit is a normal ask, and I write them every week.
On the flip side: a well-priced home in Gilbert or Chandler under $400,000 that shows well and just hit the market is not that home. It is going to have competition in the first weekend. If that is the house you want, you compete on certainty, not price. Strong financing, a clean inspection period, a closing date the seller likes. I have won several of those this year without being the highest number.
When September is not the right time
Buy now if your income is stable, you plan to stay long enough for it to make sense, and the payment works today without counting on a refinance. Refinancing later is a bonus, not a plan.
Wait if the payment would leave you with no cushion for repairs, if your job or family situation is unsettled, or if you have not narrowed the East Valley down to two or three communities yet. Gilbert, Chandler, Mesa, Queen Creek, and San Tan Valley are very different daily lives at the same price point. Figure that out first.
What to do this week
Get a real preapproval, not a prequal. Pick your two or three areas. Then send me what you are looking at and I will tell you, listing by listing, whether it is a negotiate-hard house or a move-fast house. That call takes fifteen minutes and it usually saves people either a lost house or an overpaid one.
Call or text me at (480) 374-9196 or email chris@chrisazhomes.com.
Chris Reeves is a REALTOR with RE/MAX Fine Properties serving Gilbert, Chandler, Mesa, Tempe, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, and the greater East Valley. MRP, SRES, SRS.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is September a good month to buy a home in Arizona?
It can be. School-year movers are done, some summer listings have been sitting, and most Phoenix-area homes are closing below original asking price. Competition still varies by city, price range, and condition, so the decision comes down to the specific home and payment rather than the month.
Are East Valley home prices negotiable in 2026?
Usually, yes. ARMLS reported 75% of July 2026 single-family sales closed below original list price, and Gilbert, Chandler, and Mesa homes are closing at about 98% of asking. Well-priced homes under $400,000 are the exception and can still sell at or above list.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying?
Only if today’s payment does not work. With the 30-year fixed near 6.76%, a seller credit toward a rate buydown often lowers your payment more than waiting for a small rate move, and nobody can promise rates or prices will go the direction you want.
Which East Valley city is best for buyers right now?
Mesa has the lowest median price and the longest days on market of the big three, which gives buyers the most room. Gilbert holds its value best and moves fastest. Chandler sits in between. The right one depends on your commute, budget, and the kind of neighborhood you want.
Can I ask the seller to pay closing costs in this market?
Yes, and on homes that have been sitting it is a normal request. How much the seller will agree to depends on the competition for that home, your loan program limits, and the appraisal.
Sources
[1] ARMLS, August 2026 STAT Report (July 2026 data): https://armls.com/august-2026-stat-report
[2] Redfin, Gilbert AZ Housing Market: https://www.redfin.com/city/6998/AZ/Gilbert/housing-market
[3] Redfin, Chandler AZ Housing Market: https://www.redfin.com/city/3104/AZ/Chandler/housing-market
[4] Redfin, Mesa AZ Housing Market: https://www.redfin.com/city/11736/AZ/Mesa/housing-market
[5] Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 10, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
